What if the story of the loan officer’s declining numbers is just that – a story? If you’ve been in the mortgage industry for a while, you’ve heard of the drastic decline in the number of licensed loan officers (LOs). Some refer to a 50% reduction in the LO population. Even worse, some believe that license renewals have dropped by 60%. These numbers – often expressed with pride and alarm, depending on the tone – suggest that competition is diminishing significantly.
But is that true? Newly released data from the intelligence platform RETR, alongside my own research on the NMLS site, tells a very different story.
Crunching the numbers
According to a viral social media post last month, here are the numbers for the loan officer’s decline:
- 2020: 688,327 licensed LOs
- 2024: 93,938 licensed LOs
At first glance, this paints a grim picture. However, digging deeper reveals a classic case of comparing apples to oranges. The 2020 figure shows total licenses issued – meaning that an LO licensed in five states is counted five times. On the other hand, the value of 2024 counts different peoplemeaning that LOs are counted based on each individual’s status, instead of how many licenses they have in multiple states.
According to NMLS data, here’s the real story behind the LO numbers over the years (see Figure 1 below):
- 2019: 165,116 licensed loan officers
- 2022: A peak of 233,938 LOs (29% increase from 2019)
- 2024 Q3: 192,793 LOs (down 18% from 2022 peak)
While there has undoubtedly been a drop, it’s certainly not a jaw-dropping one as the figures are floating around the internet. In addition, RETR data is open generating LOs – those who have closed a loan or two – show the same tendency: a decrease estimated at 10%, not 50% -and others suggest. That’s a very different story – and one that’s a little less apocalyptic.
The competitive landscape tells a great story
The big issue is in the competitive landscape. Although the number of LOs has decreased, the average volume of each LO has decreased significantly since the market peaked in 2020. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and RETR (see Table 1 below):
- In 2020, the average volume of each LO reached $15.65 million.
- By 2023, that figure drops to $6.99 million — a stark reflection of the market’s shrinking and increasingly competitive market.
What is the good news? Projections for 2025 suggest a 40% volume increase per LO. That will be driven by an increase in initial volume and a gradual decline in the production of LOs.
A personal reflection to consider
For me, these details were a wake-up call. I let the “LO down” narrative justify the complacency. However, the data tells me otherwise. The competition is fierce, but there is a lot of opportunity for those who adapt and stay active in the market. Whether you believe you can or not, you are right.
The numbers don’t lie. But they also don’t tell the whole story. Let this be a reminder: the future belongs to those who don’t just focus on survival, but those who focus on innovation and growth all the time.
See you at the top.
Michael McAllister
Founder/president of Emapower LO
[email protected]
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