Analysis – Syrian Kurdish groups on the back foot as balance of power shifts By Reuters

Written by Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu

QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA (Reuters) – With Turkish-backed brutal groups facing off in northern Syria, and Damascus ruled by an Ankara-friendly group, Syria’s main Kurdish groups are on the back foot as they seek to preserve political gains. it was recorded during the 13 years of the war.

Part of a stateless bloc spanning Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, the Kurds have so far been among the few winners in the Syrian conflict, controlling nearly a quarter of the country and leading a powerful armed group that is the US’s biggest ally. in the fight against the Islamic State.

But power has shifted to them since the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western lawyer told Reuters.

The seismic shift in Syria is expected to expose Turkey’s deep power just as the change in the US administration raises questions about how long Washington will continue to support the Kurdish-led forces.

In Turkey, Kurdish groups represent a threat to national security. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish government since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and other powers.

Syrian Kurdish groups are “in deep trouble”, said Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a US-based think tank.

“The balance has shifted significantly in Syria in favor of Turkish-backed or Turkish-aligned groups, and Turkey seems determined to take full advantage of this.”

The change has been reflected in renewed fighting for control of the north, where Turkish-backed armed groups known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) have made military advances against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Fanar al-Kait, a senior official in the Kurdish-led regional government, told Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Party oppressed the Kurds for decades, offered an opportunity to unite the divided country.

He said the administration was ready to negotiate with Turkey, but the conflict in the north showed that Ankara had “very bad intentions”.

“This will push the region into… a new conflict,” he added.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that he expects foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters following the ouster of Assad, as Ankara seeks to split the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that led the SDF coalition.

In response to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official said the root of the conflict “is not Turkey’s view of the region; that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organization”.

“PKK/YPG members must lay down their arms and leave Syria,” said the official.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in an interview with Reuters on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK forces in Syria for the first time, and said that they have helped fight the Islamic State and will return home if there is a full agreement with Turkey. He denied any association with the PKK.

WOMEN AND ISLAMISM

Meanwhile, in Damascus, the new leadership is showing warmth towards Ankara and is showing that it wants to bring the whole of Syria back under central authority – a challenge that could challenge the Kurds’ fortunes.

Although Turkey provides direct support to the SNA, it and other states see HTS as a terrorist group because of its al Qaeda past.

Despite this, Ankara is believed to have a strong influence over the group. A senior Western official said: “The Turks can clearly have more influence than anyone else”.

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa told a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster is “not only a victory for the Syrian people, but also for the Turkish people”.

A Turkish official said that HTS was not and had never been under Ankara’s control, calling it a structure “with which we communicate due to circumstances” and adding that many Western states do as well.

Syrian Kurdish groups led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and allied YPG militia seized control of much of the north after the start of an uprising against Assad in 2011. He established his own administration, while insisting that its purpose was independence, not independence.

Their politics, which emphasize socialism and feminism, are very different from HTS’ Islamism.

Their territory expanded as US-led forces partnered with the SDF in the campaign against the Islamic State, capturing Arab-majority areas.

Turkish-backed SNA forces intensified their campaign against the SDF as Assad was overthrown, capturing the city of Manbij on 9 December.

Washington called for a ceasefire, but the SDF said Turkey and its allies did not comply, and a Turkish defense ministry official said there was no such agreement.

US support for the SDF has been a point of contention with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key partner in the fight against Islamic State, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken warning that he will try to use this time to rebuild capabilities in Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of prisoners linked to the terrorist group.

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said last weekend that Turkey saw no signs of Islamic State resurgence in Syria. On Friday, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, told his German counterpart during talks in Ankara that other ways of managing the camps and prisons where prisoners are held need to be found.

Separately, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to find a “managed transition to the role of the SDF in that part of the country.”

President Joe Biden’s administration says US troops will remain in Syria, but President-elect Donald Trump may remove them when he takes office on January 20.

THE BOOK TO THE TRUTH

During his first administration, Trump tried to withdraw from Syria but faced pressure at home and from American allies.

In the letter of Dec. 17 to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, Syria’s top Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed said Turkey was preparing an attack in the northeast before he took power.

Turkey’s plan “threatens to reverse years of progress in ensuring stability and fighting terrorism,” he wrote. “We believe you have the power to prevent this tragedy.”

Asked for comment, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes said: “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to reducing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting the American people here at home.”

Trump said on December 16 that Turkey will “hold the key” to what happens in Syria but did not announce its plans for US troops stationed there.

“The Kurds are in an unacceptable situation,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. “Once Damascus strengthens its power, it will leave the region. The US will not stay there forever.”

HTS leader Sharaa told the British broadcaster BBC that the Kurds are “part of our people” and “there must be no division of Syria”, adding that the arms must be completely in the hands of the regime.

Sharaa acknowledged one of Turkey’s biggest concerns – the presence of non-Kurdish Syrian forces – and said: “We do not accept that Syrian countries threaten and interfere with Turkey or other areas.”

He promised to work through talks and negotiations to find a “peaceful way to solve the problem,” saying he believed communication had been established “between the Kurds of northeastern Syria or the SDF organization”.

Kait, a Kurdish official, said his administration wants “a democratic Syria, a legitimate Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as red lines. The SDF will be “the core of the future Syrian army,” he added.

SDF commander Abdi, in his interview with Reuters, confirmed that communication has been established with HTS to avoid clashes between their forces but said that Ankara will try to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.

However, he said there was strong support from international groups, including the US-led coalition, for the SDF to join a “new political phase” in Damascus, calling it a “great opportunity”.

“We are preparing, after completely ending the fighting between us and between Turkey and allied groups, to join this division,” he said.

(Orhan Qereman reported from Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry in Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara; Additional reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and (Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Alexandra Zavis)