Written by Laila Bassam and Tom Perry
BEIRUT (Reuters) – Lebanon’s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, as officials see better chances of success in a political climate rocked by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the overthrow of the group’s ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.
This post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s power-sharing plan, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October, 2022. No political party in the 128-seat parliament has enough seats to impose their decisions, and so far they have not been able to agree on a candidate.
The vote is the first test of the balance of power in Lebanon since Iran-backed Shi’ite group Hezbollah – which propelled its then-ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 – came out badly disappointed in the war with Israel.
It comes as a result of a historic shift in the wider Middle East, where the Syrian state led by Assad ruled over Lebanon for decades, both directly and in collaboration with Hezbollah.
Reflecting these changes, Hezbollah and its partner the Shi’ite Amal Movement led by the Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri have dropped their emphasis on Suleiman Frangieh, who has been announced as his successor for the past two years, and are ready to go with someone who is not too different, the three elders. said sources with knowledge of their thinking.
The candidates include army chief General Joseph Aoun – said by Lebanese politicians to have enjoyed US approval – Jihad Azour, the chief executive of the International Monetary Fund and former finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari – head of the General Security, the agency of state security.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he feels happy because “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president,” according to a statement issued by his office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in his words on France Inter radio, saying that the election is “necessary to continue this struggle for peace” and the economic and social stability of Lebanon.
However, two sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet confirmed that any candidates would be selected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in the first round, or 65 in the second round.
In a show of Western and regional interest in the vote, French and Saudi delegations met with Lebanese politicians in Beirut on Wednesday. Four Lebanese political sources who met with the Saudi ambassador, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, said last week that he explained the preferred titles that show Saudi support for Aoun.
Saudi Arabia was once a major player in Lebanon, competing with Tehran for influence in Beirut, before seeing its role eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.
HEZBOLLAH IS STILL REAL
Aoun, the head of the US-backed Lebanese army, still needs 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is still a civil servant, Berri said.
A State Department spokesman said “it is up to Lebanon to choose the next president, not the United States or any foreign actor”.
“We have been consistent in our efforts to force Lebanon to elect a new president, which we believe is important to strengthen Lebanon’s political institutions,” said the spokesperson.
Hezbollah chief Wafiq Safa said last week there was “no veto” for Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist group by the United States, will not support Aoun.
Aoun played a key role in ending the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms call for the Lebanese army to deploy in southern Lebanon as Israeli and Hezbollah forces withdraw.
Still reeling from the financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of foreign aid to rebuild.
The worst damage is in many Shia areas.
Hezbollah, whose supply line to Iran has been cut by Assad’s ouster, has appealed for Arab and international support in Lebanon.
Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of the Annahar newspaper, was not convinced that there would be a candidate, even after a major change of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah weapons have long been a source of division.
Emphasizing the influence Hezbollah and Amal no longer have, he said the only way the president can be elected would be if they agree on Aoun or Azour. But if they try to install someone they like, this would “cut off the oxygen in Lebanon”.
Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh has never completely separated from Lebanon and that foreign countries should not tell the Lebanese what to do.
(This story has been corrected to change the year Michael Aoun’s term ends to 2022, from 2023, in section 2)
