By Shoon Naing, Wa Lone, Devjyot Ghoshal, Poppy McPherson and Antoni Slodkowski
BANGKOK/BEIJING – When a coalition led by three rebel forces seized an area near the Myanmar-China border from the military last October, Beijing looked the other way.
A year later, rebel forces have ended the war, pushing the military out of key areas along the border and into central Myanmar.
In response, China has closed the border and banned essential imports into the rebel-held area, said a rebel leader and five border residents, in what analysts say is intended to stop the coalition from advancing, including attacking the cultural capital of Mandalay. .
After backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance to fight rampant crime along the unruly border, Beijing is increasingly alarmed by the rapid decline of the military, which it still sees as a guarantee of stability for its neighbor, two analysts have said. Myanmar-China relations. China is also concerned about the rise of rebel groups that have been helping the coalition and tied to the US-backed National Unity Government, one of them said.
Previously unreported details of how Beijing is cracking down on rebel forces, including blocking imports – leading at least one group to withdraw from fighting – were described to Reuters by nine people with knowledge of the conflict.
One tipping point came in August, when the coalition captured the northeastern city of Lashio, marking the first seizure of a regional military command in Myanmar’s history.
The town of about 130,000 people fell to the rebels twice as quickly as they expected, said Ni Ni Kyaw, secretary of the communist opposition group fighting to support Operation 1027, as the coalition-led offensive is known.
Myanmar’s military said in a statement in response to questions from Reuters that it was working with Beijing to ensure stability and law and order along the border, and would not accept the demands of “armed terrorists,” as it calls the rebels.
“We will continue to resolve the situation using political means,” he said.
China’s Foreign Ministry told Reuters it was “firmly opposed to the outbreak of unrest and war in Myanmar” and urged the parties to “jointly push for a soft situation” near the border. The Chinese embassy in Mandalay was partially damaged by an explosion last week, although no one was injured.
Other rebel groups hope to advance and plot a route south to Mandalay, two rebel leaders and analysts said. From there, the capital of Naypyidaw is 300 kilometers (190 miles) away.
Beijing is likely to oppose the move, said international security expert Zhu Jiangming, who has written about the border situation in China’s state media.
“Mandalay is the second largest city in Myanmar, the size of Shanghai,” he said, adding that the fall of Mandalay would be a turning point in the conflict that Beijing would try to prevent.
‘DIFFICULT SITUATION’
Operation 1027, named after the day the fighting began last year, began at a time when crimes targeting Chinese victims took place near the border. That made Beijing not object when the Three Brotherhood Alliance started to oust the junta.
The coalition is made up of three groups – including the Chinese Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – over which Beijing has influence but not direct control.
But China opposes the fall of the junta, which overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in 2021. It fears that persistent unrest along its 1,250-kilometer border with Myanmar could jeopardize investment and trade, analysts say.
Reducing crime should not overshadow the bigger picture, Zheng Gang of the CITIC Reform and Development Research Foundation, a Chinese state-owned enterprise that is building a port in Myanmar, wrote in an analysis in March.
He said that major unrest in Myanmar could benefit China’s rivals, including the US and Japan, which he said are viewed favorably by powerful groups such as the NUG.
Beijing previously flexed its muscles when negotiating a ceasefire between some ethnic militias and the junta in January. But fighting later continued and by mid-August, Lashio had fallen.
Shortly after the fall of Lashio, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar. Wang told him that Beijing was “against chaos and conflict” and urged him to “protect Chinese workers and projects,” according to a Chinese government study. China’s military held joint-fire drills along the border later that month.
Pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed. China has closed the border gates, cutting off supplies to the area newly controlled by the MNDAA, according to Maung Saungkha, the leader of another coalition-backed army, and five civilians.
Even medical supplies such as vaccines for children have not gone through, leaving the rebels running the public health system amid the conflict “in a very difficult situation”, Maung Saungkha said.
Tightened border controls have slowed the flow of weapons and ammunition to opposition groups, he added, adding that his forces would try to seize more ammunition from the defeated junta forces.
In September, the MNDAA, which has long-standing ties to China, announced that it would not work with allies in territorial expansion, or collaborate or cooperate with “foreign countries” opposed to China or Myanmar. It also announced that it is ready for a ceasefire under the leadership of China, although it is still part of the alliance.
At the end of that month, the army invited the rebels to peace talks. The proposal was quickly dismissed by rebel leaders such as Maung Saungkha, who said China’s role in supporting such talks could pave the way for fraudulent elections.
A senior official in the Government of National Unity, who did not want to be named because they are not authorized to discuss relations with Beijing, said that China is trying to create divisions among the anti-Junta forces. Beijing has urged other groups to stop fighting the militia and stop cooperating with the NUG, the official said, without providing evidence.
The NUG has loose alliances with other rebel groups, while others remain within its chain of command.
The attack on Mandalay will make it difficult for the Three Brotherhood Alliance to engage while maintaining relations with China, said Jason Tower, an analyst at the US Institute of Peace in Washington. He added that it would be dangerous for the rebels to try to take Mandalay without the support of the coalition.
Soe Thuya Zaw, commander of the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces, reporting to NUG, said China’s influence is “real,” but groups like him far from the border can lead the fight for Mandalay.
“We must unite, prepare ourselves, and do our training to overcome the pressure from China,” he said.
HIGH INSTABILITY
Beijing’s latest intervention came after seeing how quickly the junta’s forces were disintegrating in Lashio.
“China is now very active and has changed its shape dramatically,” Tower said.
The rebels believe that the junta will use the temporary halt in the war imposed by China to prepare for their defense there, said Soe Thuya Zaw. Instead, the army struggled to fight when the fighting resumed, as its high command lost contact with senior officers at the regional headquarters.
There was a wavering at the top.
Since the 2021 coup, Min Aung Hlaing has turned the region’s military leaders at a rapid pace. Between June 2017 and the February 2021 coup, the 14 regional military commands that form the basis of Myanmar’s general rule saw 36 people serve as commanders, according to Security Force Monitor, a research group at Columbia University.
In the same period 44 months after the coup, there were 49 commanders, an increase of 36%.
Most of the rounds – the details of which have not been previously reported – took place in an area close to China where the military suffered heavy losses.
“According to the latest data available, most of the current regional military commanders have never held a regional military commander,” said Tony Wilson, director of the research group.
The rapid rotation of commanders reflected Min Aung Hlaing’s request to exercise more control over the military and prevent infighting, analyst Ye Myo Hein said. The general has been under unprecedented pressure and criticism – even from loyalists – for the defeat in the past year.
During the rebel attack, Min Aung Hlaing fired the governor of Lashio district for insubordination after the conflict, according to analyst Min Zaw Oo, who has been in contact with Junta officials and Ye Myo Hein.
The replacements could not enter Lashio during the fighting, they said, and there was no reinforcement in other areas.
“You don’t change the commander when there is a critical situation just because of disobedience,” said Min Zaw Oo.
