“ARK appoints Warren Buffett as CEO” (and other headlines investors won’t see in 2025…)

Warren Buffett will not take over from Cathie Wood at ARK Invest – you heard it here first. But there are other possible things in 2025 that investors should pay attention to.

Although risk is inevitable, figuring out how to reduce it is important. And that includes working where it would take a lot for things to go wrong.

“Diageo cuts dividend”

Diageo (LSE:DGE) faces a dual threat from US spending on anti-obesity drugs. But I don’t see any of this causing the business to cut its dividend in 2025.

Regarding the tax issue, I think it is important to note that a decent part of the company’s portfolio – incl A bullet, Crown Royalagain Smirnoff manufactured in the US. These will not be affected by sales taxes.

In terms of anti-obesity drugs, most of the users are people who already tend to drink a little alcohol anyway. So I’m skeptical of the idea that this is likely to have a significant impact on demand.

The risks cannot be completely ignored, but the reduced share price means I’m looking to buy the stock in 2025. And I think the chances of the dividend doing anything but going up in 2025 are very remote.

“Rightmove accepts takeover bid”

Earlier this year, the REA group made an acquisition bid Rightmove (LSE: RMV). The offer was rejected and I don’t think anyone will succeed with the same proposal in 2025.

There are two reasons for this. The first is that the company is doing well on its own – it’s growing fast and has a strong balance sheet, which means there’s almost no pressure to sell.

The second is that the stock isn’t exactly cheap, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27. I don’t buy it at today’s rates and I don’t see anyone paying too much for this to get a solid one.

The next year will be an interesting one for Rightmove, with the possibility of increased competition from OnTheMarket a potential threat. But as for the possibility of taking over, I don’t think so.

“Interest rates return to Covid-19 levels”

Interest rates going back to 0.1% would likely cause a big rally in stock prices. But unless there is another emergency on the scale of the Covid-19 pandemic, I don’t see it.

Even in that case, I think the Bank of England may be more cautious than in the past. The resulting inflation is showing firmness and the final estimate for 2024 revealed CPI rising to 2.6%.

Rising costs are unacceptable, but higher interest rates may not be a bad thing for investors. These should moderate share prices, creating opportunities for higher returns over the long term.

Of course, that depends on which stocks investors choose to buy. But companies that can pass on higher costs to customers can make more attractive investments.

I could be wrong…

With investing, uncertainty is inevitable. Dividends are never guaranteed, strange takeovers happen, and external shocks can cause all kinds of macroeconomic instability.

I could be wrong, but I don’t see Diageo cutting its dividend, Rightmove being acquired, or interest rates going to zero. I think this is possible as Warren Buffett takes a disruptive innovation fund.