Real State

Auction.com looks at election-driven real estate market trends through 2025

In the latest episode of the Power House podcast, HousingWireDiego Sanchez sits down with him Darren Blomquistvice president of market economics at Sale.com. In this interview, Blomquist examines the impact of the election on the housing market going into 2025. The two are also testing the effect of the lock-in and Auction.com’s expansion plans.

This discussion has been edited for length and clarity. To begin, Sanchez and Blomquist discuss the impact of the election on key data lines in the housing market.

Blomquist: I think there will be a so-called “Trump bump” at the end of the year, although seasonal changes may obscure some of those data lines. But now that we know what we’re dealing with, we’re going to see some inconsistencies in some of those metrics. We will see a decrease in the mortgage rate. Buyers and sellers will come out side by side, resulting in more sales.

In terms of closings, we will see distressed inventory return to the market in early 2025. That is directly related to Trump and the aggressive regulatory environment from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Workers would be less afraid to close buildings, especially those that have been depressed for a long time.

Also, some believe that inflation and immigration may cause a recession, but that could be declining by 2025.

Sanchez: Mass deportations and trade wars could increase currency strength. What do you think of those features?

Blomquist: Trump wants mortgage rates down. However, even low rates are inherently inflationary. Tariff cuts and driving down prices will be priorities before we get to the trade war part of the agenda.

Sanchez: He released some interesting research and analysis on foreclosures and REO auctions, and it seems like that bidding activity is a foreshadowing of what’s likely to happen in the market next year. Can you unpack that research?

Blomquist: The people who buy at our distressed property auctions are primarily what we call local community developers – mainly real estate agents and investors. They buy these properties, fix them up and put them back on the market for resale to owners or tenants. When that bidding behavior increases, that’s probably a good sign of a bearish market.

Sanchez: What does Auction.com’s bidding function tell you about the spring housing market?

Blomquist: Unfortunately, it points to a sluggish spring housing market, although the election may be a factor in that. However, there are certain markets that use this practice.

Sanchez: Are we still struggling with the effect of a mortgage rate lock? Are there other things that pressure inventory?

Blomquist: I think the lock-in effect is still there. It is interesting to compare the new housing market with the existing housing market, and the distressed housing market. Homeowners in a depressed market are less emotionally attached to their homes, so they are willing to lower prices. That causes the work to continue.

To close the discussion, Blomquist explores Auction.com’s research initiatives that could impact the market in the coming year.

Blomquist: We have looked at the ascending market funnel from the collection and the pre-closing market. That’s a really interesting market that’s been overlooked. We see agents trying to take that inventory, and that can be somewhat brutal. Homeowners still need to sell. So, we hope to see if there is any disruption there.


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