HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s population will decline for the third year in a row by 2024, with the number of deaths outstripping a small increase in births, and experts warn that the trend will accelerate in the coming years.
The National Bureau of Statistics said China’s population will drop by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.
Friday’s data reinforced concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers shrinks. Rising costs from senior care and retirement benefits may also create more problems for already indebted local governments.
China’s birth population was 9.54 million compared to 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics office said. The birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 compared to 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.
The number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024 from 11.1 million in 2023.
Birth rates in China have been declining for decades due to the policies implemented by China from 1980 to 2015 and rapid urbanization.
As in neighboring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese have moved from farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.
The high cost of childcare and education as well as the uncertainty of jobs and the sluggish economy have also discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family.
Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers say.
“China’s drastic population decline is based on fixed principles: Without fundamental changes – from improving the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline will not be reversed,” said Yun Zhou, assistant professor of sociology. University of Michigan.
A 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023 – mostly delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic – accounted for the increase in births in 2024, demographers said, but the number is expected to drop again in 2025.
Marriages are a leading indicator of birth rates in China, where many single women have no access to child-rearing benefits.
Authorities have unveiled a series of measures by 2024 to boost China’s birth rate.
In December they called on colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curricula to emphasize positive views of marriage, love, procreation and family.
In November, the state council, or Cabinet, called on local governments to direct resources to address the problem of Chinese people and spread respect for childbearing and marriage at the “right age”.
The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15-to-49, is expected to drop by more than two-thirds to less than 100 million by the end of the century.
The number of people of retirement age, aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to more than 400 million by 2035 from about 280 million people currently.
The state-run China Academy of Sciences said the pension system will run out of money by 2035.
About 22 percent of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were 60 or older in 2024, compared with 296.97 million in 2023, the data showed.
Urbanization also increased rapidly with the number of people living in cities increasing by 10.83 million to 943.3 million. The number of rural people decreased to 464.78 million.
