By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – At their last meeting in December, US central bank officials were worried about sticking above their 2% target and Jobe looked on.
When they meet on Jan 28-29, sentiment around the latest economic data will at least go back to more belief that inflation will continue to fall and other concerns about the state of the job market.
A common caveat among economists – “Not all factors are important given the uncertainty of how the Edicts of the New Trump Administration can influence, the size of the workforce, and the area of control.
Measures of policy uncertainty have been called for since Donald Trump’s election victory in November. But the data from December remains useful for most of the officials who presented it who feel the job market and the overall economy is healthy, inflation is expected to be in the coming months.
After cutting its bench to measure a full point of three percentage points in the last three meetings of 2024, it is expected that the Fed will leave and leave the ranges of 4.25%-4.50% necessary and how much they would need to be able to reach the “neutral” rate.
Inflation looks set to improve
The latest report of the Consumer Price Index shows that inflation rose slightly in December but was driven by dynamic energy prices, something that is being studied trying to make a feature in the analysis of low prices.
The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, fell slightly. Most notably for the Fed, the CPI and other personal inflation indicators were up about 2% year-on-year in December and close to the Fed’s three-to-six-month target.
In addition, launch officials feel that data is being added to its Family this year. As inflation suddenly heats up at the beginning of 2024, as those strong months fall into annual figures called “core effects” will help anchor inflation lower, all else being equal.
Jobe succeeds those who are stuck
“The downside risk to the labor market appears to have stopped,” Chairman Jerome Powell said after the December meeting. While the job market continued to cool, he said, it remained “firm,” a situation the Fed hopes to maintain.
The data since then has taken part, with the economy adding the best quarter of a million jobs in December and a rate of 4.1% – another reason officials feel comfortable to smile at the cut rate at least now.
