September showed a continued decline in real estate activity since the end of the third quarter of 2023. About 3% of all mortgages were in some form of delinquency by September 2024 – up 20 percentage points year over year, according to CoreLogic report released this week.
This is the fourth month in a row that national delinquencies have increased year over year, according to CoreLogic’s September 2024 Loan Performance Insights Report. The report showed rising growth across all categories of crime – including first-degree, misdemeanor and misdemeanor offences.
The report does not include data for secondary links. All rates are measured for homes with outstanding loan balances. CoreLogic said it covers 75% of US foreclosure data.
Early delinquents (30 to 59 states last term) grew by 10 bps last year and accounted for 1.6% of all loans in September. Bad delinquencies (last 60 to 89 days) also increased by 10 bps with a share of 0.5%. Serious delinquencies (at least 90 days late) remained unchanged at 0.9% — although that rate is well below the peak of 4.3% in August 2020, CoreLogic noted.
Despite rising delinquency rates, the number of mortgages in foreclosures has not decreased from the 0.3% rate in September 2023. The rate of change in mortgages from current delinquency to original delinquency was 0.8% – also unchanged from September 2023.
CoreLogic believes that September’s US unemployment rate was the lowest it has been in years. But it may worry criminals in other areas of the municipality.
“Crime remains low, especially compared to what it was during the Great Depression. However, 70% of metropolitan areas showed an increase in the rate of delinquency from last year, and more than that, 30% of metropolitan areas showed an increase in the rate of serious crime,” said Molly Boesel, senior economist at CoreLogic, in a statement.
Boesel’s first concern refers to the 267 out of 384 metropolitan areas that have experienced annual increases in their crime rates.
Pine Bluff, Arkansas, had the largest increase, up 1.1% year over year. Followed by Houston (+1%); New Orleans (+0.8%); Altoona, Pennsylvania (+0.8%); Hammond, Louisiana (+0.8%); and Houma-Thibodaux, Louisiana (+0.8%).
The rise in crime rate has affected 116 metros in the past year. These areas were led by Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, Hawaii (+0.8%); Houston (+0.6%); and Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas (+0.4%).
CoreLogic also noted that 38 states saw an overall increase in crime from September 2023, with Louisiana (+0.6%) and Texas (+0.4%) leading the way.
The theme of this report echoes a similar narrative across the industry.
ICE Mortgage Technology reported a national crime rate of 3.48% in September, up 14 points from a year ago. I Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an annual increase in foreclosure rates for the third quarter, which stood at 3.92% for properties with one to four units.
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