This is part of a two-part series examining President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants and its economic impact.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to carry out the largest deportations in the nation’s history from his first day in office. However, his plans are short and full of legal questions and costs are open.
Before we go any further, let’s get one thing out of the way. Americans of all political persuasions share near-universal agreement that people entering the country for education, employment or citizenship must do so legally. It’s not the story here. This article discusses the costs and benefits of mass evictions.
Trump’s plan
There is an old saying that the devil is in the details. It is the details that may bedevil Trump’s plan. So, first, let’s look at the performance and costs of mass evictions.
The usual plan is to use local law enforcement and military and immigration officials to arrest suspected undocumented immigrants and place them in detention centers. There, each person’s case would be reviewed in court. Those who were determined to be in the country illegally would be taken to their home country or to another country that would offer them asylum.
One problem with that idea is that officials in sanctuary cities may not help federal immigration officials. Denver Mayor Mike Johnson has vowed to go to jail resisting Trump’s deportation plans.
Johnson is not alone. Various states throughout the United States have sanctuary laws. This includes 11 states, the District of Columbia, and major cities and counties.
Sanctuary laws prohibit local law enforcement and federal officials from aiding immigration enforcement.
Using Mass Deportation
Deporting all undocumented immigrants would be an expensive and daunting task. Tom Homan, Trump’s “border king”. he acknowledged that fact.
“The bottom line is: Can Tom Homan move 10 million people a year? No. I’m not going to lie to you,” said Homan. “But we will be there when we want them [and] when we find them, remove them.”
Vice President-elect JD Vance suggested that removing a million undocumented immigrants a year is a more reasonable goal.However, even this figure seems simplistic considering that Trump removed about 1.5 million illegal immigrants during his first administration. That put him just behind the president who presided over the most deportations of any administration – Barack Obama. From 2009 to 2016, 3.06 million immigrants were removed from the country. Add border restoration and “self-expulsion” and the number grows to 5.24 million.
Homan, Trump, and Vance all said the plan would prioritize undocumented immigrants with criminal records and those subject to court orders of deportation. From there the hunt for illegal aliens will turn to work.
The number of undocumented immigrants is usually limited to a certain area more than 11 million. That figure represents about 3.3% of the population.
No Price Tag
Rounding up and deporting more than 11 million illegal immigrants will take a lot of money. Let’s say you add legal immigrants living with an illegal spouse or parents, and the numbers balloon. That said, Trump is well aware of the challenges. You’ve been here before.
In this year’s presidential campaign, Trump reiterated his 2016 campaign pledge to deport all undocumented immigrants. In 2017, Trump renewed his promise to focus on illegals with criminal records. This year he is back to finding everyone.
Trump promised,“We will have the largest deportation in the history of our country,” at a September news conference. Of course, he never explained the cost of this plan.
“It is not a question of price. It’s not – in fact, we have no choice. When people have killed and killed, when drug dealers have destroyed countries, now they will return to those countries because they don’t live here. There is no price tag.” Trump said in an interview with NBC after the election.
The Cost of Deportation for Many
Trump may not have a price tag for being fired, but there is a financial cost.
Deportation includes arresting the person, taking them into custody, taking them to court, and taking them out of the country.
All of that costs money. A CBS an analysis in October estimated that it costs an average of $19,599 to fire one person. That same analysis determined that it would cost $216 billion to lay off 11 million people over the next four years. I American Immigration Council we put the figure at $315 billion.
Both of those estimates may be low given the backlog of cases in immigration courts. At the beginning of this year,more than three million cases were pendingin immigration courts. A speedy case can result in removal within a few weeks. Many cases take years to resolve. Add another 11 million cases to those pending and it’s anyone’s guess how long the process might take.
A Constitutional Question
Trump often said during the campaign that he would end birthright citizenship on his first day back in office. However, that is not possible if he wants to obey the law.
I 14th Amendment of the United States Constitution states:
All persons born or bred in the United States, and subject to its jurisdiction, are citizens of the United States and of the state in which they reside.
Trump has indicated that he thinks he can replace the 14th amendment by executive order. That is not entirely true. Changing any part of the constitution requires a vote of three-fourths of the states (38 out of 50).
Citizenship by birth
Trump also never commented on how many countries offer birthright citizenship.
In his Meet the Press interview, the President-elect he said that America is the only country that has the right to be born as a citizen.
“You know we’re the only country that has it,” said Trump. “You know when someone sets foot, foot, one foot, you don’t need two, in our world, ‘Congratulations, you are now a citizen of the United States of America.’ Yes, we will end that because it is bad.”
However, 33 countries and two territories have citizenship by birth. Another 32 countries offer some form of citizenship with birthright restrictions.
Deport Like It’s 1798
One way to get around the Constitution floated by the Trump team is to repeal old laws like the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law was part of the Alien and Sedition Acts. It is the only one of those laws that has not been repealed or allowed to expire. One problem with Trump’s strategy is that this action can only be used in times of war.
In part, i The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 you read:
. . . whenever there shall be war declared between the United States and any foreign nation or government, any attack or animal attack shall be made, attempted, or threatened against the territory of the United States, by any foreign nation or government, and the President. of the United States shall make a public announcement of the event, all natives, citizens, residents, or subjects of a hostile nation or government, who are males of fourteen years of age and upwards, who are within the United States, and are not naturalized, shall be liable to be apprehended, restrained, protected and removed , as unknown enemies.
This act was amended in 1918 to include women. It was last used during World War II and affected more than 31,000 people born in countries then at war with the United States.
The second part of our review of Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan looks at its potential impact on consumer prices, jobs, wages, public safety, health care, and the economy as a whole.
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