In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, housing advocates and experts are watching for signs of what his second term as president could mean for the growing housing crisis.
Housing has been a hot topic during the presidential election cycle, and was one of the policy areas that Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris discussed during their September debate. But much remains unknown, including Trump’s appointment as director of the agency US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and detailed housing plan.
Throughout his campaign, Trump has focused on deregulation, tax cuts and lower mortgage rates. In speeches, it includes one at the Economic Club of New York in September and at a press conference in August, Trump repeated his promise to reduce regulatory barriers and vowed to make federal land available for major housing projects.
Politico reported in August that proposals to sell federal land to housing developers have come up prominently both in the Republican National Committee in 2024 and in President Joe Biden’s housing plan, while he was in office. Harris also included housing projects and affordable housing in his plan. Some managers have tried this, but the programs are easily blocked.
“I think that politically, it was always easy to kill because the people who live near those lands like them nice and empty, and they can’t resist affordable housing while enjoying their own and the benefit of living near government land,” said David. Dworkin, president and CEO of National Housing Conference.
“When we talk about affordable housing, it’s something that people are often happy to have on someone else’s property or in the community, but not their own, and it’s a hypocrisy that we see in blue areas and in blue and red communities.”
If the plan moves forward, the federal government — which controls about $650 million in land — will invite developers to bid on the parcels, as long as they commit to keeping a percentage of the units affordable for local communities.
“We’ve gone beyond the federal government to build affordable housing because we’ve found that private companies do a better job of it and can use the investment better,” said Dworkin. “Having the private sector do this work actually makes sense and that, by definition, means that the private sector will make a private profit. And there is nothing wrong with that, as long as the housing is available to working people.”
Redfin Chief economist Daryl Fairweather said Trump’s housing plans are “small potatoes” compared to the two main policies — not specifically related to housing — that could impact the industry the most. Trump has a progressive tax plan and has repeatedly promised increased rates of deportation of undocumented immigrants.
“A lot of construction work is unauthorized work,” Fairweather said. “If you look at non-citizens who work in the construction industry, statistically, it’s about a third of the construction workforce. And it can be very distracting. … In the construction industry, that can mean that you think someone is going to show up to work today, and then they don’t. So, it’s not even something that can be prepared.”
It is difficult to imagine this plan, says Dworkin, because the amount of land that can accommodate the infrastructure is unknown. But he said the western US has plenty of open land — even in unlikely, high-priced parts of the country like San Francisco.
Another federal world is unlikely for a number of reasons, said Andrew Jakabovics, vice president for policy development in the United States. Business Community Partners. He argues that rural areas should be excluded from the land use equation.
“[It starts] obviously there is an environmental impact but also the cost of trying to build, bringing the building materials to the center, and the manpower out to the center, which is not possible. “But there is a lot of land controlled by the government that is already within the municipal boundaries, which is already within the municipal areas, which is underutilized,” said Jakabovics.
Intent on land use is important, he added, but it’s also too soon for incoming administrations to have a plan. “I think it’s about building more in areas where we already have houses and we already have infrastructure and we already have schools and shops, and services that make places livable,” said Jakabovics.
Dworkin agrees that balancing the profit motive of developers with rational use of the world is important. “Engineers will naturally focus on practical opportunities,” he said. “The government needs a system that is fair, equitable and effective.”
The demand for affordable housing is dire. “Homelessness is increasing every day, fueled by a lack of affordable housing,” noted Dworkin. “Addressing this problem requires building affordable housing in places where it’s needed — not just in coastal cities but in places like Phoenix, Boise, Omaha and Nashville.”
Jakabovics said that using federal land for the purpose of building more homes has never worked on a large scale before because federal and state officials are playing hot potatoes on the issue of affordable housing.
“[Land use] it was seen more as a state and local issue. We have left the development to the market to produce, you know, and the way we build the right to affordable housing is to encourage private companies to build in an affordable way that is intended,” he said.
Fairweather doubts that Trump’s plan can be implemented. “If you look [Agenda] 47, says he does not want to bring low-income houses to the suburbs. So, I don’t think he’s talking about putting subsidized housing in the post office, the way Harris was,” he said. “And builders are very profitable, and I’m not sure how much of the corporation’s land has a market value.”
In another related development, the Biden-Harris administration last month announced the sale of 20 acres of public land, at just $100 per acre, to build affordable housing projects in southern Nevada. I Bureau of Land Management sold the land, worth about $20 million, to Clark County for $2,000.
The county plans to develop 210 single-family homes for $70,000 or less. Located southwest of Las Vegas, the project known as Cactus Trails will also create more than 100 jobs.
“There are many reasons for progress – and this is one of them,” said Dworkin.
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