Japan’s factory output likely rose again in September on automatic production recovery: Reuters poll By Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s industrial output may have picked up again in September, led by a recovery in auto production, but strong growth may be uncertain with weak global demand, a Reuters poll said on Friday.

Industrial production was forecast to rise 1.0% in September from a month earlier, a survey of 17 analysts found. It fell 3.3% in August due to hurricane-induced disruptions in auto production and weak US sales.

“Although the US economy is suddenly strengthening, the global economy is showing low growth,” said Takeshi Minami, an economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

“Car exports, led by Japan, are sluggish … Production in September is expected to grow slightly.”

Factory output last month was also likely supported by gains in the production of electronic components and devices after increased demand for semiconductors, the survey showed.

Next week’s data also includes retail sales, which are likely to show a 2.3% gain in September from a year ago after a revised 3.1% increase in August, the survey found.

Strong domestic tourism demand has continued to boost retail sales in the country, analysts expect.

The Commerce Department will announce factory output and retail sales at 8:50 am on Oct. 31 (2350 GMT Oct. 30).

The unemployment rate in Japan was likely to be 2.5% in September, unchanged from August, while the number of job applicants was expected to stabilize at 1.23, according to the survey.

Jobs data will be published at 8:30 am on Oct. 29.

The survey also found that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep short-term rates steady at 0.25% when the bank holds a two-day policy meeting ending Oct. 31.

The BOJ’s policy decision will come after Sunday’s general election in which new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a key test in his plan to support wages and revive the country’s weak economy.