Are Lloyds shares the best no-brainer to buy with a 2025 stocks and shares ISA?

Looking for ideas for a Stocks and Shares ISA, surely it’s better to buy shares in big companies when they’re cheap, right?

I would say a definite yes to that, but with two very big caveats. First, we really need to make sure that we have found a really good company. And secondly, we must be able to distinguish the good from the bad.

One thing that means I almost never view any potential investment as reckless. But I think it’s entirely possible to weigh the odds Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) without needing brains like billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

High, but still cheap?

Lloyds’ share price has actually risen by 30% in the last 12 months. And it’s almost back to good territory within five years. But that’s still not working well against FTSE 100 from the first days of 2020.

And Lloyds is just a shadow of its former self before the 2008 banking crisis. But there is no use going back to those old days. No, we need to look at today’s very different Lloyds.

So how do I go about valuing the bank as a candidate for a Stocks and Shares ISA for 2025 and beyond?

I will return to Warren Buffett again.

Rule number 1

Buffett’s first rule of investing is “never lose money.” And his second, famous rule, is “never forget Rule 1.“

So what could cause Lloyds shareholders to lose money in 2025? I think the biggest fear is the car loan mis-selling problem. So far, Lloyds has set aside £450m to cover its obligations, but is otherwise tight-lipped about it.

Some observers think it could ultimately cost Lloyds up to £1.5bn. It looks like we will have to wait for the annual results due on 20 February to hear a revised decision from the Lloyds board.

Another thing that investors seem to be worried about is interest rates. Falling rates should mean tighter restrictions on mortgage lenders. But the other side of that should be more borrowers and fewer defaults.

Lloyds’ price jump today (16 January), on news of December’s lower inflation figures, seems to indicate that the markets are right about the potential consequences.

Against the masses

The rise in Lloyds’ share price may make it look like the masses are following suit. But that is behind development Barclays again NatWest Group did in the last 12 months. And I would say that must be because of the fear that I am looking at here.

So I think the best time to consider adding a company to a Stocks and Shares ISA may be when it is facing its greatest short-term uncertainty. As long as we are confident that it can overcome it and has a good long-term future. Oh, and the price is right.

It’s not even close to being a no-nonsense rule, and it’s not for the faint of heart. For investors who don’t mind going against the crowd. Does it sound like Warren Buffett again? I rate Lloyds as one to consider for the 2025 ISA.