US military airfields in the Indo-Pacific region are being taken lightly from operations, said a report by Reuters
Written by Gerry Doyle
SINGAPORE – Chinese strikes on airfields would cripple US military airspace in the Indo-Pacific region in the event of a conflict, says a new study, recommending that the US invest in cheaper, less efficient aircraft and improving runways.
The main problem, the researchers say, is that the bases within the first island chain – a group of islands running roughly from Indonesia in an arc northeast to Japan, covering the South China Sea and the East China Sea – are among China’s thousands of missiles. .
If those weapons were dedicated to destroying or disabling runways, they could shut down airfields in Japan for at least 11.7 days. Those farther away, in Guam and the Pacific Islands, may be closed for at least 1.7 days.
“In reality, however, China could hamper US military operations in the long term by denying the United States access to airstrips for aerial refueling operations,” the report said.
The report, “Cratering Effects: Chinese Missile Threats to US Air Bases in the Indo-Pacific,” was published Thursday by the Stimson Center, a defense and security think tank.
Recommends investing in large numbers of low-cost, unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare to make it difficult to plan a Chinese strike; developing multi-crew aircraft that can operate on short runways; developing additional runway maintenance capabilities and resilience capabilities; and increasing alliances so that friendly countries are more willing to open airfields for US use.
The US Indo-Pacific Command, which oversees US forces in the region, did not respond to a request for comment.
China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment.
US military planners in recent years have built on the concept of distributed operations – the ability to distribute across the region. As part of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on developing airfields in places like Australia and the island of Tinian.
In recent years the Air Force has also established a program called Rapid Airfield Damage Recovery (RADR), the report noted, which was intended to reopen airstrips immediately after an attack and remain operational for “thousands” of types.
The US also relies on missile defense – planning a multi-billion dollar network of “layers” to protect Guam – to keep airfields and other bases operational.
A former US Air Force logistics officer with direct experience simulating Indo-Pacific conflicts said the report provided a good assessment of the problem.
The official said RADR and missile defenses would be more effective than the report estimated, and noted that Chinese strike planners would likely use a mix of weapons instead of 100% anti-aircraft missiles, as the report assumed.
“Even though I don’t agree with the exact numbers… I agree that the analysis is accurate,” said the police officer who did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The report calculated the impact of China’s strikes by creating a Python statistical script that took into account variables such as the size of the runway, the accuracy of China’s weapons and US defenses.
“Last year, I began to hear many policymakers and analysts suggest that the United States could sink enough Chinese ships and defend Taiwan as long as the United States had access to bases in Japan and Guam,” said Kelly Grieco, one of the authors of the report. “At least in open source, no one has tested these proposals.”
