When it comes to what a potential victory by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the presidential election means for the future of real estate, attorney and industry analyst Rob Hahn may have said it best.
“No one knows anything,” Hahn wrote on Nov. 1 edition of his Known ROB email newsletter. “Neither Trump nor Harris made infidelity a major issue in their campaigns. None of the people running have a real record of dishonesty, and only Trump has any kind of record. “
Although the war in between Department of Justice (DOJ) and National Association of Realtors (NAR) has been going on for decades, the latest round of wars started under the Trump administration in 2018. That’s when Congressmen Tom Marino (R-Pa.) and David Cicilline (DR.I.) sent a letter to the DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) asks them to “investigate issues related to competition in the real estate industry.”
The investigation eventually led to a lawsuit, which was settled in 2020. But the NAR didn’t finalize the deal until Joe Biden took office in 2021. And under the Biden administration, the DOJ decided to withdraw from this agreement, which led to the most recent one. litigation and appeals cycle.
Additionally, an article published by New York Law Journal found that the FTC’s and DOJ’s antitrust divisions nearly doubled the average number of complaints seeking to consolidate transactions made annually under Biden, compared to the agency’s file under the Trump administration.
Trump’s history shows that he tends to be more businesslike than other administrations. This has led to speculation that under Trump’s second term, many of the housing industry’s antitrust problems will end, while a Harris presidency will lead to a continuation of the status quo. But industry analysts and lawyers aren’t so sure.
While i Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) does not address antitrust issues, former CFPB deputy director Jeff Ehrlich believes that, broadly speaking, the second Trump administration will be more aggressive in enforcement than many expect.
“In 2020, the last full year of the previous Trump administration, the Bureau brought 48 enforcement actions; so far this year, we have brought only 21,” Ehrlich wrote in an email.
He added that during the Trump administration, the bureau “brought aggressive cases, including in the real estate sector.” Filed a lawsuit against the non-bank lender. Townstone Finance for alleged violations of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) by discriminating against borrowers. It also settled a mortgage servicing case Mr. Cooper for a $73 million settlement and a $1.5 million fine.
“If history is any guide, the second Trump Administration may not be as friendly to industry as many expect,” Erlich wrote.
For Hahn, it was Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance as his fellow candidate who made things murky.
Vance has voiced his support for FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan, speaking at a policy conference in February that she considers “Lina Kahn to be one of the few people in the Biden administration that I think is doing a really good job with that kind of set. me without the majority of my Republican colleagues.”
Vance added that one of the things he appreciates most about Khan’s approach is that he “realized that there has to be a kind of broader understanding of how we think about competition in the marketplace.”
And Hahn isn’t the only one who believes Vance’s election defied expectations. The New York Law Journal wrote that “Vance appears to have positioned himself to play a key role in ensuring that people can be trusted and pick up where previous Trump administrations left off.”
“At the very least, Trump’s second term is likely to continue the policy of tightening regulation from his first four years. If Trump gives Vance significant control over competition policy, his administration could look remarkably similar to the current one, which could include appointing someone with a more populist agenda than Khan to head the FTC. ,” the article said.
Marx Sterbcow, managing attorney at Sterbcow Law Groupand is not buying into the narrative that a Trump victory would mean a “return to normal” for the real estate industry.
“In the past, when the Trump administration entered into an agreement with the NAR, things were cool,” Sterbcow said. “You don’t have things like an antitrust trial, or a jury decision in Missouri, so there was more normalcy in the industry and everything for the most part was stable and stable.
“Obviously that has changed a lot. The industry right now is a fakakta because you have a lot of confusion for consumers all over the United States, and it creates a lot of problems of dishonesty for companies and consumers.”
While Sterbcow acknowledges Trump’s business record, he doesn’t believe a second Trump administration will stand up if consumers are clearly being harmed or taken advantage of.
“It’s not like consumer protection is going away,” Sterbcow said. “We have seen in the previous Trump administration where they went after things that hurt consumers. I think in the case of the commission rules they will let it play out and let market forces take over, which would create another set of problems. “
Sterbcow expects the industry to experience some significant changes in the next 24 months. But he also feels that if these changes make things worse for consumers, the DOJ’s antitrust division will take more action.
Hahn has a similar view, backed by what he feels is Trump’s focus on lowering the cost of living, which he believes will translate into a focus on housing. Hahn said that if the Trump administration stays in real estate, antitrust pressure on the industry could continue if things like agent commissions are perceived as increased or potential barriers to homeowners.
By the same token, industry experts believe that a second Trump administration will not be completely relaxed about antitrust and enforcement laws, and they doubt that a Harris presidency will mean a continuation of the path set by the Biden administration. What aggravates this doubt is that it is not clear what the vice president has to say about the lack of trust.
Harris has previously announced his intentions, if elected, to pass legislation prohibiting price gouging. He aims to take on Big Pharma and corporate landlords, which some believe are signs that he may continue the Biden administration’s antitrust agenda.
Some have noted that a Harris victory could wipe the slate clean when it comes to antitrust, but there doesn’t seem to be any evidence to suggest that he will completely change course on what the Biden administration has pursued.
Sterbcow, for one, sees not only continued but cumulative antitrust enforcement.
“I think there could be a lot more,” Sterbcow said. “I think you’re going to see proper lending and proper maintenance, especially in the amount of real estate commissions, which is something no one wants in the industry because we don’t have any information on how things are going to go right now. policy changes.”
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